Modelling Future Forest Fire Risk for the Tourism Sector of Crete

Wildfires are one of the strongest drivers of degradation of Mediterranean ecosystems, while weather and climate are among the main factors influencing fire potential. From this perspective, we attempt to assess the future forest fire risk in Crete in the near (2046–2065) and distant future (2081–2100), under the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) of RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5. A risk assessment model was developed according to the conceptual framework of the “impact chain”, as defined by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), aiming at the formulation of a final composite risk index. The multicriteria spatial analysis, which was implemented with GIS techniques, highlighted the areas that are expected to be heavily affected in the future. It was found that the forest fire risk for the tourism sector increases with the higher emissions scenarios and towards the end of the century, with the south and central parts of the island exhibiting ‘very high’ risk. The effectiveness of this method is underlined, both in terms of implementing the necessary preventive measures against the adverse effects of climate change and of strengthening adaptation planning.