Predicting Parkinson's disease trajectory using clinical and functional MRI features: a reproduction and replication study

Parkinson's disease (PD) is a common neurodegenerative disorder with a poorly understood physiopathology and no established biomarkers for the diagnosis of early stages and for prediction of disease progression. Several neuroimaging biomarkers have been studied recently, but these are susceptible to several sources of variability. In this context, an evaluation of the robustness of such biomarkers is essential. This study is part of a larger project investigating the replicability of potential neuroimaging biomarkers of PD. Here, we attempt to reproduce (same data, same method) and replicate (different data or method) the models described in Nguyen et al., 2021 to predict individual's PD current state and progression using demographic, clinical and neuroimaging features (fALFF and ReHo extracted from resting-state fMRI). We use the Parkinson's Progression Markers Initiative dataset (PPMI, ppmi-info.org), as in Nguyen et al.,2021 and aim to reproduce the original cohort, imaging features and machine learning models as closely as possible using the information available in the paper and the code. We also investigated methodological variations in cohort selection, feature extraction pipelines and sets of input features. The success of the reproduction was assessed using different criteria. Notably, we obtained significantly better than chance performance using the analysis pipeline closest to that in the original study (R2 > 0), which is consistent with its findings. The challenges encountered while reproducing and replicating the original work are likely explained by the complexity of neuroimaging studies, in particular in clinical settings. We provide recommendations to further facilitate the reproducibility of such studies in the future.