Source-specific probabilistic health risk assessment of heavy metals in surface water of the Yangtze River Basin

The detrimental effects of heavy metal accumulation on both ecosystems and public health have raised widespread concern. Source-specific risk assessment is crucial for developing effective strategies to prevent and control heavy metal contamination in surface water. This study aims to investigate the contamination characteristics of heavy metals in the Yangtze River Basin, identifying the pollution sources, assessing the risk levels, and further evaluating the health risks to humans. The results indicated that the average concentrations of heavy metals were ranked as follows: zinc (Zn) > arsenic (As) > copper (Cu) > chromium (Cr) > cadmium (Cd) > nickel (Ni) > lead (Pb), with average concentrations of 38.02 μg/L, 4.34 μg/L, 2.53 μg/L, 2.10 μg/L, 1.17 μg/L, 0.84 μg/L, and 0.32 μg/L, respectively, all below the WHO 2017 standards for safe drinking water. The distribution trend indicates higher concentrations in the upper and lower reaches and lower concentrations in the mid-reaches of the river. By integrating the Absolute Principal Component Scores-Multiple Linear Regression (APCS-MLR) receptor model and Positive Matrix Factorization (PMF) model, the main sources of heavy metals were identified as industrial activities (APCS-MLR: 41.3 %; PMF: 42.1 %), agricultural activities (APCS-MLR: 30.1 %; PMF: 27.4 %), and unknown mix sources (APCS-MLR: 29.1 %; PMF: 30.4 %). The calculation of the hazard index (HI) for both children and adults was <1, indicating no non-carcinogenic or carcinogenic risks. Based on the source-specific risk assessment, agricultural activities contribute the most to non-carcinogenic risks, while industrial activities pose the greatest contribution to carcinogenic risks. This study offers a reference for monitoring heavy metals and controlling health risks to residents, and provides crucial evidence for the utilization and protection of surface water in the Yangtze River Basin.