Evaluating and simulating the impact of afforestation policy on land use and ecosystem services trade-offs in Linyi, China

Forest can provide multiple benefits, such as supplying a variety of ecosystem services. However, the planet is currently at risk of deforestation as a result of increased urbanization and growing food demand. Countries around the world have introduced a wide range of policies to mitigate this issue. In China, the Linyi City government has launched the cross-county forest credit market transactions (CFCMT) policy, which showcased significant innovations in compliance credits and transaction entities to enhance motivation for afforestation. This study creates a no-policy counterfactual scenario to analyze the woodland growth and ecosystem service trade-offs between 2013 and 2021. The results demonstrate that the woodland grew faster after this policy, with a growth rate 1.78 times higher than that from 2013 to 2017. The areas of woodland growth with the policy are mainly located on the edges of cropland and woodland. The increased woodland primarily originates from cropland conversion, and compared to the no-policy scenario, these growing woodlands have gentler slopes and lower altitudes. After the policy’s enforcement, there were more increases in carbon storage, soil retention, and habitat quality. And ecosystem services showed a more optimizing trend in the direction of synergy at grid and town scales. We also find that larger spatial scales exhibit synergies and less accurately represent trade-off/synergistic change trends. The ecosystem services bundle consisting of carbon stocks, soil conservation and habitat quality showed a significant increase. This study reveals woodland growth and trade-offs among ecosystem services after the implementation of CFCMT policy, offering valuable insights for future afforestation policy optimization and promotion.