Longitudinal Tumor-informed Circulating Tumor DNA Status Predicts Disease Upstaging and Poor Prognosis for Patients Undergoing Radical Cystectomy

Background and objective Decision-making on the use of neoadjuvant and adjuvant treatment for patients with bladder cancer undergoing radical cystectomy (RC) currently depends on assessment of clinical and pathological features, which lack sensitivity. Circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) has emerged as a possible novel prognostic biomarker in the field. Our aim was to assess whether ctDNA status before RC is predictive of pathological and oncological outcomes. We also evaluated the dynamic changes in ctDNA status after RC in relation to recurrence-free survival (RFS). Methods We analyzed data for patients who underwent RC during 2021–2023 for whom prospective tumor-informed ctDNA analyses were conducted before and after RC. RFS was evaluated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Predictors for disease recurrence were assessed using Cox proportional-hazards models. Pathological outcomes associated with detectable ctDNA before RC were assessed in univariable and multivariable regression analyses. Key findings and limitations We included 112 patients in the analysis. Median follow-up was 8 mo (interquartile range 4–13). ctDNA was detected before RC in 59 patients (53%) and was associated with poor RFS (log-rank p < 0.0001). Detectable ctDNA before RC was associated with poor outcomes regardless of clinical stage (更多