A regional examination of the footprint of agriculture and urban cover on stream water quality.

Freshwater systems in cold regions, including the Laurentian Great Lakes, are threatened by both eutrophication and salinization, due to excess nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P) and chloride (Cl-) delivered in agricultural and urban runoff. However, identifying the relative contribution of urban vs. agricultural development to water quality impairment is challenging in watersheds with mixed land cover, which typify most developed regions. In this study, a self-organizing map (SOM) analysis was used to evaluate the contributions of various forms of land cover to water quality impairment in southern Ontario, a population-dense, yet highly agricultural region in the Laurentian Great Lakes basin where urban expansion and agricultural intensification have been associated with continued water quality impairment. Watersheds were classified into eight spatial clusters, representing four categories of agriculture, one urban, one natural, and two mixed land use clusters. All four agricultural clusters had high nitrate-N concentrations, but levels were especially high in watersheds with extensive corn and soybean cultivation, where exceedances of the 3 mg L-1 water quality objective dramatically increased above a threshold of ‍∼30 % watershed row crop cover. Maximum P concentrations also occurred in the most heavily tile-drained cash crop watersheds, but associations between P and land use were not as clear as for N. The most urbanized watersheds had the highest Cl- concentrations and expansions in urban area were mostly at the expense of surrounding agricultural land cover, which may drive intensification of remaining agricultural lands. Expansions in tile-drained corn and soybean area, often at the expense of mixed, lower intensity agriculture are not unique to this area and suggest that river nitrate-N levels will continue to increase in the future. The SOM approach provides a powerful means of simplifying heterogeneous land cover characteristics that can be associated with water quality patterns and identify problem areas to target management.