Abstract 7385: Explainable AI model incorporating uncertainty estimation for enhanced MSI-H prediction and immunotherapy response in gastrointestinal cancer

Abstract Background: Microsatellite instability-high (MSI-H) tumors respond well to immune checkpoint blockade and oftentimes not to chemotherapeutics. Despite value of determining MSI status to guide therapy, many patients’ samples are not untested. Deep learning models may be able to predict MSI status by analyzing hematoxylin and eosin (H&E) stained whole-slide images (WSIs). Validation of this tool will provide another tool to increase MSI testing. However, to be deployed into clinical routine care, prediction models need be externally validated in large and diverse patient cohorts. In addition, these models should provide uncertainty of prediction to help clinicians make informed decisions. Results: In this study, we introduce a novel Bayesian prediction model using whole-slide images (WSIs) and deep Gaussian processes (DGPs) in a weakly supervised learning context. Extensively tested on large datasets (n=3,146) from multiple centers, our model not only demonstrated superior performance but also showed that incorporating uncertainty into predictions significantly improves MSI prediction accuracy, achieving AUROC of >0.91 in colon cancer and >0.94 in gastric cancer. Additionally, an in-depth analysis within the gastric cancer cohort indicated a significant correlation between predicted MSI-H regions and immunotherapy response. Patients who responded to immune checkpoint inhibitors had a higher proportion of MSI-H regions (P-value < 0.05). This correlation was also observed in patients categorized as MSS but responsive to ICIs, highlighting the potential of our model to identify MSI-H patterns not detected through standard laboratory tests. This advancement could lead to more precise patient selection for ICI therapy, enhancing personalized treatment strategies in gastrointestinal cancer. Citation Format: Sunho Park, Minj Kim, Ji-Youn Sung, Jeong Hwan Park, Sung Hak Lee, Sam C. Wang, Jaeho Cheong, Tae Hyun Hwang. Explainable AI model incorporating uncertainty estimation for enhanced MSI-H prediction and immunotherapy response in gastrointestinal cancer [abstract]. In: Proceedings of the American Association for Cancer Research Annual Meeting 2024; Part 1 (Regular Abstracts); 2024 Apr 5-10; San Diego, CA. Philadelphia (PA): AACR; Cancer Res 2024;84(6_Suppl):Abstract nr 7385.