Alternative vegetation trajectories through passive habitat rewilding: opposite effects for animal conservation

Passive habitat rewilding after rural abandonment can affect wildlife differently depending on the type of habitats that it generates. Evaluate and compare the effects of two alternative vegetation trajectories that occur through passive habitat rewilding in Mediterranean ecotone areas (crop-scrub and crop-pine forest transitions) on the long-term population dynamics of animal species. We used the spur-thighed tortoise (Testudo graeca), a characteristic long-lived species of cultural landscapes, as study species. We applied a spatially explicit and individual-based model (STEPLAND) to simulate the movement and demographic processes in a long-term period, by comparing an “impact scenario” (i.e., historical land-use changes) to a “control scenario” (no land-use changes). The two landscape scenarios resulted in different population trends. In the crop-scrub scenarios (control and impact), population densities increased similarly over time. However, the crop-pine forest scenario negatively affected population density throughout the simulation period, and showed a time-lag response of three decades. The extinction risk was 55