Modelling spatial & temporal variability of air pollution in an area of unconventional natural gas operations

Despite the growing unconventional natural gas production industry in northeastern British Columbia, Canada, few studies have explored the air quality implications on human health in nearby communities. Researchers who have worked with pregnant women in this area have found higher levels of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in the indoor air of their homes associated with higher density and closer proximity to gas wells. To inform ongoing exposure assessments, this study develops land use regression (LUR) models to predict ambient air pollution at the homes of pregnant women by using natural gas production activities as predictor variables. Using the existing monitoring network, the models were developed for three temporal scales for 12 air pollutants, including but not limited to hydrocarbons. The models predicting monthly, bi-annual, and annual mean concentrations explained 23%–94%, 54%–94%, and 73%–91% of the variability in air pollutant concentrations, respectively. These models can be used to investigate associations between prenatal exposure to air pollutants associated with natural gas production and adverse health outcomes in northeastern British Columbia.