An 18F-FDG PET/CT and Mean Lung Dose Model to Predict Early Radiation Pneumonitis in Stage III Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated with Chemoradiation and Immunotherapy.

Radiation pneumonitis (RP) that develops early (i.e., within 3 mo) (RPEarly) after completion of concurrent chemoradiation (cCRT) leads to treatment discontinuation and poorer survival for patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer. Since no RPEarly risk model exists, we explored whether published RP models and pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT-derived features predict RPEarly Methods: One hundred sixty patients with stage III non-small cell lung cancer treated with cCRT and consolidative immunotherapy were analyzed for RPEarly Three published RP models that included the mean lung dose (MLD) and patient characteristics were examined. Pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT normal-lung SUV featured included the following: 10th percentile of SUV (SUVP10), 90th percentile of SUV (SUVP90), SUVmax, SUVmean, minimum SUV, and SD. Associations between models/features and RPEarly were assessed using area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AUC), P values, and the Hosmer-Lemeshow test (pHL). The cohort was randomly split, with similar RPEarly rates, into a 70%/30% derivation/internal validation subset. Results: Twenty (13%) patients developed RPEarly Predictors for RPEarly were MLD alone (AUC, 0.72; P = 0.02; pHL, 0.87), SUVP10, SUVP90, and SUVmean (AUC, 0.70-0.74; P = 0.003-0.006; pHL, 0.67-0.70). The combined MLD and SUVP90 model generalized in the validation subset and was deemed the final RPEarly model (RPEarly risk = 1/[1+e(- x )]; x = -6.08 + [0.17 × MLD] + [1.63 × SUVP90]). The final model refitted in the 160 patients indicated improvement over the published MLD-alone model (AUC, 0.77 vs. 0.72; P = 0.0001 vs. 0.02; pHL, 0.65 vs. 0.87). Conclusion: Patients at risk for RPEarly can be detected with high certainty by combining the normal lung's MLD and pretreatment 18F-FDG PET/CT SUVP90 This refined model can be used to identify patients at an elevated risk for premature immunotherapy discontinuation due to RPEarly and could allow for interventions to improve treatment outcomes.