Heart and Lung Dose as Predictors of Overall Survival in Patients With Locally Advanced Lung Cancer. A National Multicenter Study

Introduction: It is an ongoing debate how much lung and heart irradiation impact overall survival (OS) after definitive radiotherapy for lung cancer. This study uses a large national cohort of patients with locally advanced NSCLC to investigate the association between OS and irradiation of lung and heart. Methods: Treatment plans were acquired from six Danish radiotherapy centers, and patient characteristics were obtained from national registries. A hybrid segmentation tool automatically delineated the heart and substructures. Dose-volume histograms for all structures were extracted and analyzed using principal component analyses (PCAs). Parameter selection for a multivariable Cox model for OS prediction was performed using cross-validation based on bootstrapping. Results: The population consisted of 644 patients with a median survival of 26 months (95% confidence interval [CI]: 24–29). The cross-validation selected two PCA variables to be included in the multivariable model. PCA1 represented irradiation of the heart and affected OS negatively (hazard ratio, 1.14; 95% CI: 1.04–1.26). PCA2 characterized the left-right balance (right atrium and left ventricle) irradiation, showing better survival for tumors near the right side (hazard ratio, 0.92; 95% CI: 0.84–1.00). Besides the two PCA variables, the multivariable model included age, sex, body-mass index, performance status, tumor dose, and tumor volume. Conclusions: Besides the classic noncardiac risk factors, lung and heart doses had a negative impact on survival, while it is suggested that the left side of the heart is a more radiation dose–sensitive region. The data indicate that overall heart irradiation should be reduced to improve the OS if possible.