Utility of peripheral protein biomarkers for the prediction of incident interstitial features: a multicentre retrospective cohort study

Introduction/rationale Protein biomarkers may help enable the prediction of incident interstitial features on chest CT. Methods We identified which protein biomarkers in a cohort of smokers (COPDGene) differed between those with and without objectively measured interstitial features at baseline using a univariate screen (t-test false discovery rate, FDR p<0.001), and which of those were associated with interstitial features longitudinally (multivariable mixed effects model FDR p<0.05). To predict incident interstitial features, we trained four random forest classifiers in a two-thirds random subset of COPDGene: (1) imaging and demographic information, (2) univariate screen biomarkers, (3) multivariable confirmation biomarkers and (4) multivariable confirmation biomarkers available in a separate testing cohort (Pittsburgh Lung Screening Study (PLuSS)). We evaluated classifier performance in the remaining one-third of COPDGene, and, for the final model, also in PLuSS. Results In COPDGene, 1305 biomarkers were available and 20 differed between those with and without interstitial features at baseline. Of these, 11 were associated with feature progression over a mean of 5.5 years of follow-up, and of these 4 were available in PLuSS, (angiopoietin-2, matrix metalloproteinase 7, macrophage inflammatory protein 1 alpha) over a mean of 8.8 years of follow-up. The area under the curve (AUC) of classifiers using demographics and imaging features in COPDGene and PLuSS were 0.69 and 0.59, respectively. In COPDGene, the AUC of the univariate screen classifier was 0.78 and of the multivariable confirmation classifier was 0.76. The AUC of the final classifier in COPDGene was 0.75 and in PLuSS was 0.76. The outcome for all of the models was the development of incident interstitial features. Conclusions Multiple novel and previously identified proteomic biomarkers are associated with interstitial features on chest CT and may enable the prediction of incident interstitial diseases such as idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis.