Decoupling trend and drivers between grain water-carbon footprint and economy-ecology development in China

CONTEXT: Agriculture is not only the basic guarantee for human survival, but also the basis for the economy development and ecology construction. Water use and carbon emissions in grain production will largely determine China's transition to "green". OBJECTIVE: On the basis of finding out how much water is consumed and how much carbon is emitted by grain cultivation, and then finding out whether and what extent water use and carbon emissions affect economicecological development in China. METHODS: This study uses the Tapio decoupling model to calculate the decoupling status of the grain water-carbon footprint and economic-ecological development in mainland China from 1998 to 2020. Then the Logarithmic Mean Division Index (LMDI) model is used to analyze the drivers of the change of water-economy decoupling status. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: The results show that the grain water-carbon footprint is well decoupled from economic development, most decoupling states are absolute decoupling ( - 3 < e < 0) and relative decoupling (0 < e < 1). The grain water-carbon footprint decoupled from ecological development is weak, and the decoupling coefficient has significant spatio-temporal differences. The agricultural production technology is the main positive driver for the decoupling between grain water footprint and economic development in mainland China ( - 1 < eB < 0). And the economic development scale is the main restraining factor for the decoupling between grain water footprint and economic development (0 < e C < 1). All provinces in mainland China need to correctly handle the relationship between economy -ecology development and grain security, and take water conservation and carbon emission reduction as an important starting point for adjusting the industrial structure, so as to achieve "green" development. SIGNIFICANCE: The grain water -carbon footprint was calculated in an integrated manner, and then based on the calculation of the decoupling situation, the drivers of the decoupling situation were further assessed.