Numerical groundwater flow modeling under future climate change in the Central Rift Valley Lakes Basin; Ethiopia
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY-REGIONAL STUDIES(2024)
Abstract
Study area: Katar and Meki subbasins, Rift Valley Lakes Basin, Ethiopia.Study focus: This research was carried out to characterized the recharge mechanism and quantify the steady-state groundwater balance and its sensitivity to future climate change. A groundwater simulation model was constructed and calibrated using a hydro-geo spatial dataset. Three regional climate models were used to assess the potential impact of changes in future precipitation on the recharge rate and groundwater balance components.New Hydrogeological Insight: Groundwater potential assessment depends on accurate estimation of the recharge rate. Precipitation contributed 11.95% and 11.96% to groundwater recharge in the Katar and Meki subbasins, respectively. The steady-state numerical groundwater model was calibrated and the model performed in the ranges of R2: 0.95-0.99; RMSE: 16.17-25.18; and MAE: 12.69-24.55, demonstrating 'excellent' model performance. In particular, the model exhibited high sensitivity to changes in the recharge rate and horizontal hydraulic conductivity. Future change in precipitation caused a reduction in groundwater potential in the range of 6.24-40.32% by the 2040 s and 2070 s, respectively, in the Katar subbasin. Likewise, the Meki Subbasin will experience a reduction in groundwater potential in the range of 0.29-37.17% by the 2040 s and 2070 s, respectively. These results emphasize how crucial it is for future water resource development initiatives to take into account climate variability for sustainable groundwater development.
MoreTranslated text
Key words
MODFLOW-NWT,Numerical Modeling,Climate change impact,Groundwater recharge,Hydrological Modeling,Central Rift Lakes,Basin,Ethiopia
AI Read Science
Must-Reading Tree
Example
![](https://originalfileserver.aminer.cn/sys/aminer/pubs/mrt_preview.jpeg)
Generate MRT to find the research sequence of this paper
Chat Paper
Summary is being generated by the instructions you defined