Deep learning analysis of epicardial adipose tissue to predict cardiovascular risk in heavy smokers

Background Heavy smokers are at increased risk for cardiovascular disease and may benefit from individualized risk quantification using routine lung cancer screening chest computed tomography. We investigated the prognostic value of deep learning-based automated epicardial adipose tissue quantification and compared it to established cardiovascular risk factors and coronary artery calcium. Methods We investigated the prognostic value of automated epicardial adipose tissue quantification in heavy smokers enrolled in the National Lung Screening Trial and followed for 12.3 (11.9–12.8) years. The epicardial adipose tissue was segmented and quantified on non-ECG-synchronized, non-contrast low-dose chest computed tomography scans using a validated deep-learning algorithm. Multivariable survival regression analyses were then utilized to determine the associations of epicardial adipose tissue volume and density with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality (myocardial infarction and stroke). Results Here we show in 24,090 adult heavy smokers (59% men; 61 ± 5 years) that epicardial adipose tissue volume and density are independently associated with all-cause (adjusted hazard ratios: 1.10 and 1.38; P < 0.001) and cardiovascular mortality (adjusted hazard ratios: 1.14 and 1.78; P < 0.001) beyond demographics, clinical risk factors, body habitus, level of education, and coronary artery calcium score. Conclusions Our findings suggest that automated assessment of epicardial adipose tissue from low-dose lung cancer screening images offers prognostic value in heavy smokers, with potential implications for cardiovascular risk stratification in this high-risk population.