Feasible climate policies in a democracy with a climate-denying party
arxiv(2024)
Abstract
Climate policy has become increasingly politicized in many countries
including the US, with some political parties unwilling to pursue strong
measures. Therefore, to be successful in mitigation, climate policies must be
politically feasible. Currently, climate mitigation pathways are explored in
so-called Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) which evaluate climate policies
from an economic perspective, typically focusing on cost-effectiveness and
overlooking transition costs. However, the economy is intertwined with the
political system, in which policymakers impose economic policies, but are (in
democracies) dependent on public opinion, which in turn can be influenced by
economic performance. In cases where some parties are much less ambitious in
climate mitigation than others, climate policy can be abruptly disrupted,
influencing voting behaviour. In this study, we analyze the political
feasibility of a set of green policies in case some parties are strongly
unwilling to protect the climate. We show that this simple additional social
layer of complexity largely affects the outcome of the abatement measures. In
particular, we conclude that a (high) pure carbon tax is particularly
vulnerable to abrupt interruptions and its economic side effects discourage
votes for green parties. Nevertheless, a strategically selected combination of
policies can reduce political uncertainty, resulting in a more feasible and
effective mitigation measure.
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