Assessing Southern Gulf of Mexico Resilience: Least Tern Nesting Failure During the COVID-19 Pandemic

The COVID-19 lockdown opened an opportunity to assess the response of animal populations to diminished human activities. As coastal dunes face many disturbances caused by increasing human activities, we assessed the effect of reduced human mobility on coastal bird diversity and abundance and on the Least Tern nest failure rate on an island in the southern Gulf of Mexico before, during, and after the lockdown to test the hypothesis that diminished tourism and recreational activities can contribute to the conservation of coastal ecosystems by increasing species richness and abundance and decreasing the nest failure rate. We used data from 2016 to 2021 to estimate nesting failure probabilities using Bernard’s cumulative distribution function, Kaplan‒Meier tests, and Cox regression for hazard rates. Bird species richness and abundance were compared using Kruskal‒Wallis rank tests. Factors related to breeding site preference were assessed using the BIOENV method. The lockdown did not affect species richness, but bird abundance was inversely related to pedestrian traffic (rho = − 0.908, p < 0.0001, n = 48). Nest failure decreased during the lockdown in 2020 (p < 0.0001) due to reduced presence of people, which allowed occupancy of sites never used before. During the lockdown, the proportion of nest failure was lower than that in the other sampling years (p < 0.0001, φ range = − 0.445 to − 0.278). Accordingly, diminished pedestrian traffic can increase nest survival (log-rank p < 0.0001). Policies to reduce beach pedestrian traffic will help strengthen wildlife conservation and building coastal resilience.