Future ecosystem service provision under land-use change scenarios in southwestern Ethiopia
ECOSYSTEMS AND PEOPLE(2024)
Abstract
Continued pressure and transformation of land-use by humans are key drivers of biodiversity and ecosystem services (ES) loss. To determine the sustainability of possible future land-use practices, it is important to anticipate likely future changes to biodiversity and ES. This can help stakeholders and decision-makers to understand and assess the viability of current development policies and design alternative future pathways. Focusing on a biodiversity hotspot in southwestern Ethiopia, we considered four future land-use scenarios (namely: 'Gain over grain', 'Coffee and conservation', 'Mining green gold' and 'Food first' scenarios) that were developed in an earlier project via participatory scenario planning. We modelled and mapped the spatial distribution of six ES (erosion control, carbon storage, coffee production, crop production, livestock feed, and woody-plant richness) for the current landscape and the four scenarios. Our results show that potential ES changes differed strongly across the scenarios. Changes were strongest for land-use scenarios involving large-scale agricultural intensification; and changes were not uniformly distributed across the landscape. Smallholder farmers specializing on cash crops ('Gain over grain' scenario) would likely cause little change to ES generation, but major losses in ES would result from expanding either food or coffee production ('Mining green gold' and 'Food first'). Finally, the 'Coffee and conservation' scenario appears to be the most sustainable scenario because it would secure diverse ES for the long term. Our findings provide valuable input for decision-makers and stakeholders and could help to identify sustainable land-use options. Land-use scenarios involving large-scale agricultural intensification, whether for food crops or cash crops, are likely to lead to loss of other potential ecosystem services.Land-use scenarios that involve an integrative approach of food production and biodiversity conservation, such as the 'Coffee and conservation' scenario, can secure diverse ecosystem services in the long run.Integrative land use development can also be more beneficial for the local community and for environmental resilience.Potential ecosystem service maps of land-use scenarios can support decision-makers and stakeholders in their planning for the future of the landscape by illustrating the plausible effects of land-use scenarios on ecosystem services at both landscape scale and kebele level.
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Key words
Laura Pereira,Ecosystem service,landscape,land-use scenarios,large-scale intensification,modeling,spatial mapping
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