The spatiotemporal changes and trade-off synergistic effects of ecosystem services in the Jianghan Plain of China under different scenarios

Disturbance from human activities has intensified the evolution of ecosystem structure in the Jianghan Plain of China, leading to intensified conflicts between ecosystem services. It is essential to clarify the trade-off synergies between ecosystem services in the Jianghan Plain of China to better coordinate the economic and social development and ecological protection of the region. Based on historical data and scenario predictions using the GeoSOS-FLUS model, the InVEST model was applied to five key ecosystem services: Carbon storage, crop production, habitat quality, soil conservation and water yield from 2000 to 2020. Spearman correlation analysis was used to explore the trade-off synergies between different ecosystem services in space and time. The results showed that arable land and water land areas are the most important land types in the Jianghan Plain of China. From 2000 to 2020, the increase in build-up land and water land areas was accompanied by a decrease in arable land, forest land and unused land, and an increase in forest land. The natural development scenario in 2035 continues this trend except forest land reduction, while the ecological protection scenario reverses this trend. From 2000 to 2020, crop production, water yield, and soil conservation increased in the Jianghan Plain of China, while carbon storage and habitat quality declined significantly, showing a spatial distribution pattern of higher in the northwest and lower in the southeast. The comprehensive ecosystem services simulated in 2035 showed a downward trend compared with 2020, and the ecological protection scenario has the smallest decrease. There is an overall synergistic relationship between the five ecosystem services in the Jianghan Plain of China, and the strongest synergistic relationship is between soil conservation and water yield. The spatiotemporal relationship between the ecosystems in the Jianghan Plain of China is dynamic and requires sustainable management. Thus, it is necessary to rationally utilize land resources and enhance the ecological functions of the area to minimize trade-offs based on scientific land and spatial planning to maximize synergy.