Climate Shifts: Measuring the Impact on Overnight Stays in Italy

This research quantitatively assesses the impact of climate change on Italy's tourism industry, emphasizing the consequential effects on enterprise turnover and local authorities' fiscal revenues. The study aims to enhance stakeholder capabilities through diagnostic skills, addressing both immediate and long-term climate impacts on overnight stays. Employing innovative statistical and predictive tools, supported by cutting-edge ICT technologies, the research explores the symbiotic relationship between climate dynamics and regional income. Utilizing a comprehensive database merging socio-economic and meteorological data, an econometric framework is established. Overnight stays serve as the dependent variable, with GDP and CPI as economic factors and climate data sourced from the ERA5 reanalysis dataset. Atmospheric variables include monthly climate indicators of 2-meter temperature, solar radiation and cumulated precipitation at the NUTS 2 level, and monthly weather regimes indices obtained from EOF analysis. Additionally, a categorical variable incorporating extreme events (floods, storms, heatwaves, cold spells) from the EM-DAT database is considered. The study spans January 1990 to August 2023, offering insights into the intricate relationships between climate change, economic impacts on tourism, and the historical and present causal links with overnight stays. These findings contribute to strategies promoting sustainability and resilience in tourism destinations amid climate change challenges.