Mixed plaque on coronary CT angiography predicts atherosclerotic events in asymptomatic intermediate-risk individuals

Objective Coronary CT angiography (CCTA) permits both qualitative and quantitative analysis of atherosclerotic plaque and may be a suitable risk modifier in assessing patients at intermediate risk of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease. We sought to determine the association of plaque components with long-term major adverse cardiovascular events (MACEs) in asymptomatic intermediate-risk patients, compared with conventional coronary artery calcium (CAC) score.Methods 100 intermediate-risk patients underwent double-blinded CCTA. Follow-up was conducted at 10 years and data were cross-referenced with the National Death Index. The primary outcome was MACE, which was a composite of death, acute coronary syndrome (ACS), revascularisation and stroke.Results The median time from CCTA to follow-up was 9.5 years. 83 patients completed follow-up interview and mortality data were available on all 100 patients. MACE occurred in 17 (20.5%) patients, which included 2 (2%) deaths, 8 (10%) ACS, 3 (4%) strokes and 5 (6%) revascularisation procedures. 47 (57%) patients had mixed plaque, which was predictive of MACE (OR 4.68 (95% CI 1.19 to 18.5) p=0.028). The burden of non-calcified and mixed plaque, defined by non-calcified plaque segment stenosis score, was also a predictor of long-term MACE (OR 1.59 (95% CI 1.18 to 2.13) p=0.002). Neither calcified plaque (OR 3.92 (95% CI 0.80 to 19.3)) nor CAC score (OR 1.01 (95% CI 0.999 to 1.02)) was associated with long-term MACE.Conclusion The presence and burden of mixed plaque on CCTA is associated with an increased risk of long-term MACE among asymptomatic intermediate-risk patients and is a superior predictor to CAC score.