Toward Understanding the Dynamics of Compound Hot and Dry Extremes in India

Compound hot and dry extremes (CHDEs) refer to the conditions where hot and dry extremes co-occur. Their joint impact on society is more severe than that of their individual extremes. The increasing frequency and intensity of such events underscore the urgency of understanding their dynamics. CHDEs during crop growing seasons can significantly affect agricultural production and food security. In this study, we developed a multivariate approach for analyzing vegetation responses to CHDEs from a probabilistic perspective using soil moisture, temperature, and solar-induced fluorescence (SIF). We examined how vegetation responds to different development stages of CHDEs, including their onset, peak, and termination periods. Furthermore, we explored how the frequency and characteristics of CHDEs are projected to change in the future, providing insights into the evolving risk on vegetation in future under different climate scenarios. This study enhances our understanding of the complex dynamics involved in compound extreme events and highlights the necessity of considering compound dry and hot extremes when assessing vegetation responses to climate extremes under global warming.   Keywords: Compound Hot and Dry Extremes (CHDEs), Vegetation response, Food security, climate risk