Impact of sediment transport on newly constructed embankments and flooding in the Nakkhu River, Kathmandu, Nepal

In Nepal, urbanization has significantly accelerated since 2017 due to the conversion of numerous rural administrative units into urban ones by the government. This trend is particularly pronounced in the Kathmandu Valley where development is taking place on a large scale, including the building of four smart satellite cities, an outer ring road and river corridor roads flanked by green belts. The result is increased urban sprawl, river channelization, and floodplain encroachment, accompanied by sand and gravel mining activities. Many embankments have been constructed for flood protection along the rivers in the Kathmandu valley, including the Nakkhu River. However, the increasing number of settlements in low-lying floodplain areas and associated infrastructure damage caused by overtopping, breaching, or seepage of embankments, raise questions about the long-term sustainability of embankments as a solution to prevent future floods. Using numerical simulations in a coupled hydrodynamic and landscape evolution model, CAESAR-Lisflood, we investigate how such embankments affect sediment transport, channel geometry, conveyance capacity, and flood inundation along the Nakkhu River. Each simulation is based on a high-resolution digital elevation model (2 m pixels, acquired in 2019-2020). Input sediment grain sizes are derived from field measurements, and we drive the model for different flood scenarios using maximum daily discharge data provided from the Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Nepal. The results suggest that changes in channel geometry caused by sedimentation increase flood risk downstream, particularly where embankments have been built to replicate sinuous channel courses. Inundation area is significantly higher in a scenario that includes sediment transport compared to a flood event modelled without sediment. It is recommended that sediment transport analysis be undertaken in the routine design of embankments and planned developments for river floodplains to minimize flood risk. Our study indicates that the construction of embankments alone may not provide sustainable long-term protection against future floods in rivers carrying high sediment loads. Keywords: River embankment; Sediment transport; River morphology; Flood modelling; Nepal