Decadal Variability of the Indonesian Throughflow’s Vertical Structure and the Impact on Heat and Salinity Transport

The Indonesian Throughflow, a low-latitude passage of the global conveyor belt, transfers water from the tropical Pacific to the Indian Ocean, modulating the properties of both oceans. Observational and modelling studies have shown that the interannual and decadal variability of the Indonesian Throughflow is closely linked to the leading climate modes of the tropical Pacific, namely the El Niño Southern Oscillation and the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation; further, it is modulated by variability in the Indian Ocean, especially in the outflow region. The Indonesian Throughflow volume transport variability affects salinity and temperature transport and ocean-atmosphere exchange in the Indo-Pacific warm pool. The Makassar Strait transport represents about 80% of the total Indonesian Throughflow transport and is, therefore, a good proxy for the Indonesian Throughflow transport. Observations from the Indonesian Seas have been used to explain the variability on seasonal to interannual time scales. However, due to the lack of long observational time series in the region, assessing the variability and driving mechanisms on longer time scales is challenging. Here, we use transient runs of a high-resolution coupled ocean-atmosphere model to address the decadal variability of the Indonesian Throughflow and its change under global warming over the time period 1850-2102. We assess how heat content, salinity, and volume transport in the Makassar Strait region change on these timescales and how they contribute to the heat and freshwater transport changes. In addition, we investigate the vertical structure of the Indonesian Throughflow variability and its driving mechanisms. This involves understanding how Indonesian Throughflow variability is connected more broadly to large-scale conditions in the Pacific and Indian Oceans. The results presented here may motivate further analysis using multiple simulations of the high-resolution model configurations conducted as part of HighResMIP to assess the forced changes to the Indonesian Throughflow under RCP8.5 forcing in a highly dynamic ocean region that plays a pivotal role in global heat and freshwater transport.