Changes in the Variability and Teleconnections of the Northeastern Tropical Atlantic Upwelling Region around 2

Sea Surface Temperatures (SST) in the Northeastern Tropical Atlantic upwelling region off Senegal and Mauritania feature pronounced variability on interannual time scales with impacts on the marine ecosystem. While part of this variability results from wind stress and wind stress curl-driven changes in local upwelling, the roles of air-sea heat fluxes, horizontal advection and potentially remotely forced thermocline variations have also been discussed. Here the relative roles of these forcing mechanisms and how they change over the time period from 1958 to 2020 are investigated utilizing reanalysis products as well as output from a general ocean circulation model (NEMO) forced by the atmospheric JRA55-do forcing. In the configuration analyzed (VIKING20X), oceanic resolution is increased to 1/20º over the Northern Atlantic via a two-way nesting approach, allowing for a better representation of the near-coastal upwelling region. Interestingly, while interannual SST variability in the eastern equatorial Atlantic and the Angola Benguela region has decreased since 2000 and is projected to further decrease in the future, there is an increase of SST variability in the Northeastern Tropical Atlantic. To understand this increase, we address the roles of changes in local wind forcing and the connection to the equatorial region via the propagation of equatorial and coastal trapped waves. Along with the altered SST variability, teleconnection patterns related the Northeastern Tropical Atlantic, in particular with the El Niño – Southern Oscillation, also changed.