Thin Ice, Large Impact: Temporal and spatial trends of Arctic thermodynamic and dynamic sea ice thickness change

The Arctic Ocean's transition from perennial sea ice to more ice-free summers has halved sea ice thickness in the last six decades, significantly impacting the Arctic climate and ecosystem. Recent trends show a slowing in ice thickness and volume decline, prompting a need to investigate the underlying seasonal and long-term feedback mechanisms of sea ice thickness change. To do so, we use a Lagrangian drift-aware sea ice thickness product (DA-SIT), combined with extensive data on thermodynamic growth conditions and sea ice deformation, to quantify thermodynamic and dynamic thickness change in selected Arctic regions. A key focus is the Multidisciplinary Drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition, which provided regional-scale analysis of seasonal sea ice thickness change using airborne ice thickness measurements, sea ice deformation, and in-situ snow and thermodynamic growth data. Our study extends these findings to larger temporal and spatial scales, evaluating their pan-Arctic applicability using long-term satellite datasets. We compare the MOSAiC trajectory with different dynamic regimes and ask how representative the conditions were for the “old” and the “new” Arctic. This analysis is key to understanding future sea ice thickness change, which is of great relevance for many climate and ecosystem processes.