Variability in surface CO2 flux: Implication for monitoring surface emission from geothermal fields

In the last decade the international push for the development of various renewable energy and the increase of the carbon tax for emitters, has put high enthalpy geothermal on a hot seat. Anthropic geothermal emissions in volcanic areas are not negligible due to the inherent nature of their volcanic setting but are counted regardless, similarly to a gas or coal power plant, despite their non-fossil carbon origin. Natural volcanic emissions are however poorly constrained due to the lack of field scale soil CO2 flux assessments. In this study, we analyse the temporal and spatial variations of soil CO2 flux and soil temperature in the Taupō region, Taupō Volcanic Zone, New Zealand, in the light of seasonal variation, field utilisation, and seismicity. Fortnightly monitoring between 2019 and 2023 at 8 sites across the Tauhara and Wairakei geothermal fields provides insight into changes of seasonal variations and geothermal activities. To understand the broader distribution of natural degassing and to compare the CO2 flux over decades, we repeated the CO2 flux survey between 2019 and 2023 and compared to previous results at Karapiti, Wairakei geothermal field (2004, 2018), Ring of Fire, Tauhara geothermal field (2006), and Rotokawa geothermal field (2003, 2011). Similar emissions but a change in the spatial distribution at Tauhara geothermal field suggests that human surface development has affected permeability in the shallow subsurface. In contrast, a similar spatial distribution of flux, but higher emissions, at Karapiti, Wairakei indicates the recovery or modification of reservoir pressure. Finally, a decrease of total emission flux of the natural geothermal features at Rotokawa coincides with the decrease of CO2eq emissions at the power stations. This study showcases the complexity and uncertainties of natural CO2 emission calculations and provides recommendations for future monitoring studies.