Modeled Coastal-Ocean Pathways of Land-Sourced Contaminants in the Aftermath of Hurricane Florence

Extreme precipitation during Hurricane Florence, which made landfall in North Carolina in September 2018, led to breaches of hog waste lagoons, coal ash pits, and wastewater facilities. In the weeks following the storm, freshwater discharge carried pollutants, sediment, organic matter, and debris to the coastal ocean, contributing to beach closures, algae blooms, hypoxia, and other ecosystem impacts. Here, the ocean pathways of land-sourced contaminants following Hurricane Florence are investigated using the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) with a river point source with fixed water properties from a hydrologic model (WRF-Hydro) of the Cape Fear River Basin, North Carolina's largest watershed. Patterns of contaminant transport in the coastal ocean are quantified with a finite duration tracer release based on observed flooding of agricultural and industrial facilities. A suite of synthetic events also was simulated to investigate the sensitivity of the river plume transport pathways to river discharge and wind direction. The simulated Hurricane Florence discharge event led to westward (downcoast) transport of contaminants in a coastal current, along with intermittent storage and release of material in an offshore (bulge) or eastward (upcoast) region near the river mouth, modulated by alternating upwelling and downwelling winds. The river plume patterns led to a delayed onset and long duration of contaminants affecting beaches 100 km to the west, days to weeks after the storm. Maps of the onset and duration of hypothetical water quality hazards for a range of weather conditions may provide guidance to managers on the timing of swimming/shellfishing advisories and water quality sampling. Hurricane Florence hit the southeastern United States in September 2018, causing historic rainfall and flooding. Floodwaters carrying contaminants traveled down rivers to the ocean, causing harmful algal blooms, beach closures, and other impacts. In the Cape Fear River Basin, North Carolina's largest watershed, open-air lagoons used to store waste from industrial hog farming were breached, causing sewage to flow into the ocean in a coherent feature called a 'river plume' that moved in different patterns. Flooding impacts are increasing, but the movement of contaminants in river plumes following extreme events is not well understood. We used a numerical ocean model to simulate the Cape Fear River plume carrying a dye representing contaminants following Hurricane Florence. The plume initially traveled west hugging the coast due to Earth's rotation, alternately spreading east or offshore due to changes in the direction of winds blowing on the ocean. The river plume patterns led to a delayed onset and long duration of contaminants affecting beaches far down the coast, days to weeks after the storm. We also simulated several scenarios with different river discharge and winds. This information could help guide managers on when to perform water quality sampling and issue swimming or shellfishing advisories. Pathways of land-sourced contaminants in the aftermath of Hurricane Florence are investigated with an ocean model with hydrology source The Cape Fear River plume had a westward coastal current and intermittent offshore storage modulated by wind direction and river discharge Beaches 100 km west saw river-sourced water quality hazards with delayed onset and long duration, from days to weeks after the storm