Impact of theoretical uncertainties on model parameter reconstruction from GW signals sourced by cosmological phase transitions

Different computational techniques for cosmological phase transition parameters can impact the Gravitational Wave (GW) spectra predicted in a given particle physics model. To scrutinize the importance of this effect, we perform large-scale parameter scans of the dynamical real-singlet extended Standard Model using three perturbative approximations for the effective potential: the MS and on-shell schemes at leading order, and three-dimensional thermal effective theory (3D EFT) at next-to-leading order. While predictions of GW amplitudes are typically unreliable in the absence of higher-order corrections, we show that the reconstructed model parameter spaces are robust up to a few percent in uncertainty. While 3D EFT is accurate from one loop order, theoretical uncertainties of reconstructed model parameters, using four-dimensional standard techniques, remain dominant over the experimental ones even for signals merely strong enough to claim a detection by LISA.