Future electricity production at Mutriku Wave Energy Plant estimated from CMIP6 wave climate projections (2015-2100)

Renewable marine energy sources are rapidly developing worldwide. With numerous operational marine power plants in existence, it is becoming increasingly important to explore their potential. Hence, this study aims to examine the impact of climate change on the future potential of wave energy. The case study was centred on the Mutriku Wave Energy Plant, situated in the Bay of Biscay in the northern region of the Iberian Peninsula. To accomplish this, this study investigated changes in wave energy from 2015 to 2100 by employing ERA5 data and an ensemble of CSIRO wave projections driven by six distinct models derived from CMIP6 model runs. Two were associated with the SSP1-2.6 pathway while the other four corresponded to the SSP5-8.5 pathway. The unidimensional wave variables were bias-corrected using the Quantile Matching (QM) technique, whereas the bidimensional variables were corrected using the Multivariate Bias Correction N-pdf (MBC Npdf) technique. Subsequently, a self-organising map (SOM) technique was employed to classify daily sea type frequencies and power. Additionally, the Smirnov test was employed to determine whether the probability density functions derived from different datasets exhibited significant differences at a significance level of 0.05. The conclusions obtained indicate that energy production in the Bay of Biscay will remain stable in the late 21st Century. The daily frequencies of the sea type and power did not change significantly. This stability ensures consistent power generation, enabling the location to provide a reliable and consistent source of energy both currently and in the future.