Once in NEET, always in NEET? Childhood and adolescent risk factors for different NEET patterns.

BACKGROUND:Young adults in Neither in Employment, Education nor Training (NEET) are at risk of adverse labour market outcomes. Earlier studies often measured NEET status at one time point or compared persistent NEETs with non-NEETs, neglecting other patterns of NEET status. Evidence on early life factors associated with NEET patterns is lacking. This study aims to (i) identify patterns of NEET status over time and (ii) examine whether factors in childhood and adolescence are associated with these patterns. METHODS:Data were used from 1499 participants of the TRacking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey (TRAILS), a Dutch prospective cohort study with 15-year follow-up. NEET status was assessed at ages 19, 22 and 26. Socioeconomic status of parents (SES), intelligence and negative life events were measured at age 11, educational attainment at age 26 and mental health problems at ages 11, 13.5 and 16. Data were analyzed using multinomial logistic regression analysis. RESULTS:Four NEET patterns were identified: (i) non-NEETs (85.2%), (ii) early NEETs (4.5%), (iii) late NEETs (5.7%) and (iv) persistent NEETs (4.5%). Reporting internalizing problems at age 11 was a risk factor for early and late NEETs [odds ratio (OR) 2.77, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.16-6.62; OR 5.00, 95% CI 2.22-11.3, respectively]. Low parental SES, lower intelligence scores and negative life events (≥3) were risk factors for persistent NEETs (OR 4.45, 95% CI 2.00-9.91; OR 0.96, 95% CI 0.94-0.98; OR 4.42, 95% CI 1.62-12.08, respectively). CONCLUSIONS:The results highlight the importance of timing and duration of NEET status and emphasize the need for tailored interventions to prevent specific NEET patterns.