Numerical analysis of the dynamic gas hydrate system and multiple BSRs in the Danube paleo-delta, Black Sea

The gas hydrate stability zone (GHSZ) is defined by pressure-temperature-salinity (pTS) constraints of natural gas hydrate (GH) system. It refers to a depth interval which usually extends several hundred meters into the sediment column at sufficient water depths. The lower boundary of the GHSZ often coincides in seismic reflection data with a bottom simulating reflector (BSR), which indicates the transition between the underlying free gas and the overlying no-free gas zone at the thermodynamic stability boundary. The GHSZ in geological systems is dynamic and can shift in response to sedimentation processes and/or changes in environmental conditions such as bottom water temperatures, hydrostatic pressure, and water salinity. The appearance of multiple BSRs has been interpreted as remnants of former GHSZ shifts which have persisted over geological timescales. In this study, we numerically simulate the sedimentation-driven development of multiple stacked BSRs in the Danube deep-sea fan in the Black Sea. We show that in this dynamic sediment depositional regime sufficient amounts of residual gas remain trapped in the former GHSZ, given sufficiently high initial gas hydrate saturations, so that paleo-BSRs could persist over long time scales (similar to 300 kyr). In particular, the formation and persistence of multiple BSRs in the Danube Delta is controlled by the sequence of sedimentation events of the levees induced by sea-level change. The kinetics of methane phase transitions between gas hydrate, dissolved methane, and free gas plays a key role in the coexistence, location and timing of the multiple BSRs. Thus, For a given permeability, distinct multiple BSRs appear only for a narrow range of GH formation (10(-14) < k(f) [mol/m(2) Pa s] <= 10(-12)) and dissociation rates (10(-16) < k(d) [mol/m(2) Pa s] < 10(-14)).