Conservation policy and forest transition in Zagros forests: Statistical analysis of human welfare, biophysical, and climate drivers

Understanding patterns in forest cover change (FCC) is urgently needed to support government policies aimed at long-term sustainable forest management. Because of the struggle against forest loss, the Zagros forests (ZFs), which cover 3.5% of Iran's total land area, have been subjected to conservation policies. However, little is known about the efficacy of these strategies, and most information about dynamics of the ZFs is dependent on official data, which can be scant and unreliable. Therefore, the need for accurate statistics is felt more than ever in response to the requirements of international requests for information transparency. If positive or negative changes are recorded during the implementation of these policies, it is essential to assess the extent to which drivers were responsible for these changes. We assess the patterns of forest cover in the ZFs between 2002 and 2022 in the context of the implementation of one of Iran's most significant conservation policies. Furthermore, an evaluation of how forest dynamics relate to the main variables of FCC is performed. For this purpose, we used Landsat data and Google Earth Engine platform to calculate ZF cover dynamics for 61 counties in 11 provinces. Findings indicate that after 20 years of implementing conservation policies, the ZF cover has increased by 0.53%. Changes in the Human Development Index (HDI) and Gini indices were significant during the study period at the 95% confidence level, and the HDI demonstrated a significant correlation with Forest recovery (R = 0.151) and deforestation (R = -0.190) at the 95% confidence level. Changes in ZF have a significant relationship with distance from forests, roads, precipitation, and slope at the county level. In addition to the variables addressed in this research, conservation strategy played a positive role on ZF recovery. Findings can help clarify the changes and amount of forest cover, and have global consequences for concentrating more on improving the socioeconomic status of local people and conserving forests.