What if Brazilians reduce their beef consumption?

Beef, among all foods, has the greatest environmental impact and is associated with several chronic diseases. Brazil is one of the largest consumers of meat in the world, on par with developed countries and, most of its greenhouse gas emissions stem from deforestation and agricultural activities. Therefore, this article aims to project the economic and environmental impacts of reducing beef consumption due to changes in household preferences and an increase in beef taxes, with and without a revenue neutral mechanism (subsidies applied to food, excluding meat). To analyze this, a dynamic interregional Computable General Equilibrium model was employed, incorporating a land use change module and accounting for substitution between different food items in both consumption and production structure across regions within the Brazilian Amazon, Matopiba, and the rest of Brazil. The results show that a 40% reduction in beef consumption distributed between 2022 and 2050 could prevent deforestation on an area of approximately 65,000 km2, potentially mitigating up to 2.8 GtCO2e (a third of the world's potential mitigation from dietary changes according to the UN). In the scenario with subsidies, the reduction in deforestation is smaller due to incentives provided to certain commodities that use pasture. Preference changes could have a virtually zero impact on GDP by 2050. Conversely, increased beef taxes could result in an overall rise in costs, leading to a negative impact on exports and GDP (subsidies only attenuate). In all scenarios, regional impacts would be heterogeneous, particularly affecting regions highly dependent on the cattle and beef sector.