Climate change reduces agricultural total factor productivity in major agricultural production areas of China even with continuously increasing agricultural inputs

Agricultural total factor productivity (ATFP) is a crucial measure that determines the aggregate agricultural output per unit of aggregate input. ATFP is sensitive to climate change; however, the impacts of climate change on ATFP have rarely been investigated despite its significance. In this study, we employ the Malmquist index methods to calculate the ATFP from 1981 to 2019 based on detailed census data at the prefecture level across China. Furthermore, we project the ATFP in the period of 2020-2060 under the Societal Development Pathway (SSP) 1-2.6 and SSP3-7.0. The results showed that, during 1981-2019, the ATFP of China increased significantly, ranging from 0.74 to 38.95. The joint changes in temperature and precipitation benefited ATFP growth in some prefectures in northwestern, northeastern and southern China but reduced it in the Huang -Huai -Hai Region. During 2031-2060, ATFP is projected to be more positively affected by climate change in northern China than in southern China. Some regions such as the Northwest Arid Region, most of the Northeast China and Southwest China Region will benefit from climate change. However, some major agricultural production areas including the Huang -Huai -Hai Region and southeast China are expected to be negatively affected by climate change. Our findings highlight the need to consider the impacts of climate change on ATFP when developing climate adaptation strategies in agriculture.