Decarbonization pathways to subregional carbon neutrality in China based on the top-down multi-regional CGE model: A study of Guangxi

Deep decarbonization efforts are necessary in subregions to achieve China's dual carbon goals. However, existing studies on subregional decarbonization pathways have neglected the constraints of national decarbonization schemes, resulting in incompatibility between national and subregional decarbonization pathways. In this study, we employed a top-down multi-regional computable general equilibrium (CGE) model using Guangxi as an example to assess the decarbonization pathways of the subregion under two typical national decarbonization pathways. Under a conservative decarbonization scenario, Guangxi's carbon emissions will peak at 325 Mt CO2 by 2032, with residual carbon emissions of 111 Mt CO2 by 2060. Under a proactive decarbonization scenario, Guangxi's carbon emissions will be significantly reduced, peaking at 294 Mt CO2 by 2030 and retaining residual carbon emissions of 63 Mt CO2 by 2060. The service, light industry, metallurgy, building materials, and electricity sectors were the major carbon emitters. Decarbonization plans can potentially transform Guangxi's energy structure into a low-carbon system and narrow the supply-demand gap for fossil fuels. However, the supply demand gap for electric power will increase unless energy efficiency is largely improved. Realizing dual carbon goals can cause some damage to Guangxi's macroeconomy and energy-intensive industries.