Detection and prediction of drought by utilizing integrated geo-spatial and Markov approach in Balochistan, Pakistan

Pakistan is exposed to variety of hazards. Drought is one of the hydro-meteorological hazards causing loss of life and soil moisture, reduction in agricultural production and decline in groundwater level. Balochistan is the largest province of Pakistan which has been severely affected by drought. This study is an effort to analyze and forecast the spatial pattern of drought in Balochistan using Markov Model. Both primary and secondary data were utilized in Geographical Information System (GIS) environment to model the current and predict the future pattern of drought in the region. The main input spatial layers included land cover, natural difference vegetation index (NDVI), natural difference water index (NDWI), groundwater level, precipitation and current drought. The spatial pattern of drought is delineated into extreme, moderate and low/no drought zones. The analysis reveals that the currently, the extreme, moderate and low/no drought zones are spatially extended over 9.9