Distributions of Posterior Quantiles via Matching
arxiv(2024)
摘要
We offer a simple analysis of the problem of choosing a statistical
experiment to optimize the induced distribution of posterior medians, or more
generally q-quantiles for any q ∈ (0,1). We show that all implementable
distributions of the posterior q-quantile are implemented by a single
experiment, the q-quantile matching experiment, which pools pairs of states
across the q-quantile of the prior in a positively assortative manner, with
weight q on the lower state in each pair. A dense subset of implementable
distributions of posterior q-quantiles can be uniquely implemented by
perturbing the q-quantile matching experiment. A linear functional is
optimized over distributions of posterior q-quantiles by taking the optimal
selection from each set of q-quantiles induced by the q-quantile matching
experiment. The q-quantile matching experiment is the only experiment that
simultaneously implements all implementable distributions of the posterior
q-quantile.
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