Geographic Variation and Environmental Predictors of Nontuberculous Mycobacteria in Laboratory Surveillance, Virginia, USA, 2021-20231.

Because epidemiologic and environmental risk factors for nontuberculous mycobacteria (NTM) have been reported only infrequently, little information exists about those factors. The state of Virginia, USA, requires certain ecologic features to be included in reports to the Virginia Department of Health, presenting a unique opportunity to study those variables. We analyzed laboratory reports of Mycobacterium avium complex (MAC) and M. abscessus infections in Virginia during 2021-2023. MAC/M. abscessus was isolated from 6.19/100,000 persons, and 2.37/100,000 persons had MAC/M. abscessus lung disease. M. abscessus accounted for 17.4% and MAC for 82.6% of cases. Saturated vapor pressure was associated with MAC/M. abscessus prevalence (prevalence ratio 1.414, 95% CI 1.011-1.980; p = 0.043). Self-supplied water use was a protective factor (incidence rate ratio 0.304, 95% CI 0.098-0.950; p = 0.041). Our findings suggest that a better understanding of geographic clustering and environmental water exposures could help develop future targeted prevention and control efforts.