Radiomics analysis of R2*maps to predict early recurrence of single hepatocellular carcinoma after hepatectomy

Objectives This study aimed to evaluate the effectiveness of radiomics analysis with R2* maps in predicting early recurrence (ER) in single hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) following partial hepatectomy. Methods We conducted a retrospective analysis involving 202 patients with surgically confirmed single HCC having undergone preoperative magnetic resonance imaging between 2018 and 2021 at two different institutions. 126 patients from Institution 1 were assigned to the training set, and 76 patients from Institution 2 were assigned to the validation set. A least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regularization was conducted to operate a logistic regression, then features were identified to construct a radiomic score (Rad-score). Uni- and multi-variable tests were used to assess the correlations of clinicopathological features and Rad-score with ER. We then established a combined model encompassing the optimal Rad-score and clinical-pathological risk factors. Additionally, we formulated and validated a predictive nomogram for predicting ER in HCC. The nomogram's discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility were thoroughly evaluated. Results Multivariable logistic regression revealed the Rad-score, microvascular invasion (MVI), and alpha fetoprotein (AFP) level > 400 ng/mL as significant independent predictors of ER in HCC. We constructed a nomogram based on these significant factors. The areas under the receiver operator characteristic curve of the nomogram and precision-recall curve were 0.901 and 0.753, respectively, with an F1 score of 0.831 in the training set. These values in the validation set were 0.827, 0.659, and 0.808. Conclusion The nomogram that integrates the radiomic score, MVI, and AFP demonstrates high predictive efficacy for estimating the risk of ER in HCC. It facilitates personalized risk classification and therapeutic decision-making for HCC patients.