Closing the GHG mitigation gap with measures targeting conventional gasoline light-duty vehicles – A scenario-based analysis of the U.S. fleet

Despite international efforts to increase the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, global gasoline internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEV-Gs) sales are projected to remain strong for the coming decades, with electric vehicles (EV) sales remaining well below 50% under International Energy Agency projections for 2030. The current study analyzes the cumulative reduction of greenhouse gas emissions that can be obtained by 2050 from policies targeting these gasoline powered vehicles. The analysis is applied to the case of the U.S. light-duty vehicles (LDV) fleet, a representative country with a large LDV fleet and slow EV penetration; the work considers technological, decisional and behavioral solutions. Technological pathways include fuel economy improvements, vehicle lightweighting and a greater provision of ethanol blends. Decisional pathways include purchasing decisions related to vehicle size and relative (best-in-class) fuel economy among available models. Behavioral pathways include improvements in driving habits.