Maximum Likelihood Degrees of Brownian Motion Tree Models: Star Trees and Root Invariance

A Brownian motion tree (BMT) model is a Gaussian model whose associated set of covariance matrices is linearly constrained according to common ancestry in a phylogenetic tree. We study the complexity of inferring the maximum likelihood (ML) estimator for a BMT model by computing its ML-degree. Our main result is that the ML-degree of the BMT model on a star tree with n + 1 leaves is 2^n+1-2n-3, which was previously conjectured by Améndola and Zwiernik. We also prove that the ML-degree of a BMT model is independent of the choice of the root. The proofs rely on the toric geometry of concentration matrices in a BMT model. Toward this end, we produce a combinatorial formula for the determinant of the concentration matrix of a BMT model, which generalizes the Cayley-Prüfer theorem to complete graphs with weights given by a tree.