Associations between metabolic profiles and incident CKD in the Chinese population aged 45–85 years

Purpose The roles of metabolic indices in predicting chronic kidney disease (CKD) were lacking. This study aimed to examine the concomitant impact of metabolic and novel anthropometric indices on incident CKD in the Chinese populations. Methods This prospective cohort study included 1825 males and 2218 females aged between 45 and 85 years, derived from the ongoing prospectively cohort of China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS), from 2011 to 2015. The outcome was defined as an estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min/1.73 m 2 . Results During the 5-years follow-up period, 3.0% (55/1825) of males and 4.1% (90/2218) of the females developed CKD. After multivariable adjustment, elevated triglyceride (TG), low high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), serum uric acid (sUA), elevated visceral fat index (VFI), elevated body shape index (BSI) and elevated body roundness index (BRI) in males, and sUA, and BRI in females were the independent predictors for CKD. Composite scores, composed of sUA, history of cardiovascular disease (CVD), waist circumstance (WC), HDL-C, and BRI in males and sUA, hypertension, and BRI in females were constructed that could accurately predict CKD. Conclusion Our study found that elevated levels of TG, sUA, BSI, BRI, and diminished HDL in males and elevated levels of sUA, and BRI in females, are indicative of the incident CKD. The composite score, integrating a history of disease, metabolic indices, and noval anthropometric indices, could accurately differentiate individuals with and without incident CKD, proving useful for CKD care and management.