How are climate policies assessed in emerging economies? A study of ex-ante policy appraisal in Brazil, China, and India

Effective mitigation of climate change requires a robust set of policy interventions. Existing policy appraisal frameworks and approaches impact the design and choice of these policy options. However, their application to transformative climate policy can present several shortcomings. In light of criticism around current appraisal methods, we review the climate policy appraisal landscape and interview policy experts in three major emerging economies: Brazil, China and India. Little research has been done on the perception, approach, and practice of policy appraisal in these countries, even though they will have a significant impact on global progress to mitigate climate change. We find that policy appraisal in Brazil, China, and India is supported by guidelines, but the detail and implementation of those guidelines vary significantly. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is the prevailing decision-making framework in both Brazil and India whereas multi-criteria analysis is the dominant framework in China. Practitioners appear to understand CBA and its limitations well but also value its usability and the perception of robustness. Across all countries, political considerations can outweigh appraisal findings; respondents suggested this can be negative, in the sense that appraisal results are sometimes ignored, but can also be positive in the sense that other objectives are considered. Existing approaches present several limitations, particularly regarding transformational change, which could hamper progress to formulate and implement effective climate and energy policy. Guidelines that standardize the appraisal process are considered better for accountability and therefore increase the influence of appraisal in policymaking.The choice of approach affects the appraisal outcome. The type of policy and its intended aims should inform the method of appraisal used.Climate policies are often transformational in nature. As such, their outcomes can be very uncertain. More efforts are needed to integrate these considerations of uncertainty into appraisal frameworks.More computational models that consider system feedbacks and uncertainty are needed to robustly analyse the impacts of transformative policies.