Evaluating Effects of Nitrogen and Phosphorus Discharges under Different Reduction Scenarios: A Case of Chaohu Lake Basin, China

Determining the amount of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) discharged into lakes and assessing the effectiveness of reduction measures in a basin that involve the interaction of multiple factors are still daunting challenges. In this study, the random forest (RF) model was employed to simulate the impact of controlling measures on the amount of N and P discharged in 2025 under seven specific reduction scenarios. Discharged N and P decreased in the basin by 23.38% and 31.69% from 2011 to 2020, respectively. The N and P nutrient discharge intensities were significantly higher in the western part of the basin (13.31 kgha(-1)a(-1) and 1.34 kgha(-1)a(-1)) than those in the eastern region (10.24 kgha(-1)a(-1) and 0.74 kgha(-1)a(-1)). Fertilizer runoff (N: 34.72%, 5934.49 t; P: 13.60%, 199.76 t), domestic sewage (N: 29.14%, 4009.27 t; P: 34.84%, 496.59 t), and livestock farming (N: 15.11%, 2657.50 t; P: 40.05%, 616.05 t) were the key sources of N and P. The RF model shows that (R-2 > 0.994, p < 0.01) the multi-factor reduction effect is the best, and under this discharge reduction effect, the amount of N and P discharged in 2025 are expected to decrease by 13.79% and 19.42%, respectively, compared with those in 2020. In addition, different key sources in sub-basins might lead to regional differences in the discharge reduction effects of various measures. Ultimately, we recommend that the synergistic treatment of point and non-point sources, using treatments with multiple measures, should be implemented in different regions to reduce the amount of N and P discharged in the Chaohu Lake Basin.