Insights and challenges for the development of mosquito control action thresholds using historical mosquito surveillance and climate datasets

Strategies to advance action threshold development can benefit both civilian and military vector control operations. The Anastasia Mosquito Control District (AMCD) has curated an extensive record database of surveillance programs and operational control activities in St. Johns County, Florida, since 2004. A thorough exploratory data analysis was performed on historical mosquito surveillance and county -wide climate data to identify climate predictors that could be used in constructing proactive threshold models for initiating control of Aedes, Culex, and Anopheles vector mosquitoes. Species counts pulled from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) light trap (2004-2019) and BG trap (2014-2019) collection records and climate parameters of temperature (minimum, maximum, average), rainfall, and relative humidity were used in two iterations of generalized linear models. Climate readings were incorporated into models 1) in the form of continuous measurements, or 2) for categorization into number of "hot," "wet," or "humid" days by exceedance of selected biological index threshold values. Models were validated with tests of residual error, comparison of model effects, and predictive capability on testing data from the two recent surveillance seasons 2020 and 2021. Two iterations of negative binomial regression models were constructed for 6 species groups: container Aedes (Ae. aegypti, Ae. albopictus), standing water Culex (Cx. nigripalpus, Cx. quinquefasciatus), floodwater Aedes (Ae. atlanticus, Ae. infirmatus), salt -marsh Aedes (Ae. taeniorhyncus, Ae. sollicitans), swamp water Anopheles (An. crucians), and a combined Total Mosquitoes group. Final significant climate predictors varied substantially between species groups. Validation of models with testing data displayed limited predictive abilities of both model iterations. The most significant climate predictors for floodwater Aedes, the dominant and operationally influential species group in the county, were either total precipitation or frequency of precipitation events (number of "wet" days) at two to four weeks before trap collection week. Challenges hindering the construction of threshold models were discussed. Insights gained from these models provide initial feedback for streamlining the AMCD mosquito control program and analytical recommendations for future modelling efforts of interested mosquito control programs, in addition to generalized guidance for deployed armed forces personnel with needs of mosquito control but lacking active surveillance programs.