Identifying Prediabetes in Canadian Populations Using Machine Learning

Prediabetes is a critical health condition characterized by elevated blood glucose levels that fall below the threshold for Type 2 diabetes (T2D) diagnosis. Accurate identification of prediabetes is essential to forestall the progression to T2D among at-risk individuals. This study aims to pinpoint the most effective machine learning (ML) model for prediabetes prediction and to elucidate the key biological variables critical for distinguishing individuals with prediabetes. Utilizing data from the Canadian Primary Care Sentinel Surveillance Network (CPCSSN), our analysis included 6,414 participants identified as either nondiabetic or prediabetic. A rigorous selection process led to the identification of ten variables for the study, informed by literature review, data completeness, and the evaluation of collinearity. Our comparative analysis of seven ML models revealed that the Deep Neural Network (DNN), enhanced with early stop regularization, outshined others by achieving a recall rate of 60%. This model’s performance underscores its potential in effectively identifying prediabetic individuals, showcasing the strategic integration of ML in healthcare. While the model reflects a significant advancement in prediabetes prediction, it also opens avenues for further research to refine prediction accuracy, possibly by integrating novel biological markers or exploring alternative modeling techniques. The results of our work represent a pivotal step forward in the early detection of prediabetes, contributing significantly to preventive healthcare measures and the broader fight against the global epidemic of Type 2 diabetes. ### Competing Interest Statement The authors have declared no competing interest. ### Funding Statement This study did not receive any funding ### Author Declarations I confirm all relevant ethical guidelines have been followed, and any necessary IRB and/or ethics committee approvals have been obtained. Yes I confirm that all necessary patient/participant consent has been obtained and the appropriate institutional forms have been archived, and that any patient/participant/sample identifiers included were not known to anyone (e.g., hospital staff, patients or participants themselves) outside the research group so cannot be used to identify individuals. Yes I understand that all clinical trials and any other prospective interventional studies must be registered with an ICMJE-approved registry, such as ClinicalTrials.gov. I confirm that any such study reported in the manuscript has been registered and the trial registration ID is provided (note: if posting a prospective study registered retrospectively, please provide a statement in the trial ID field explaining why the study was not registered in advance). Yes I have followed all appropriate research reporting guidelines, such as any relevant EQUATOR Network research reporting checklist(s) and other pertinent material, if applicable. Yes All data used are available online at https://cpcssn.ca/ website upon reasonable request.