Exploratory empirical model of combined effects of COVID-19 and climate change on youth mental health

The COVID-19 pandemic and climate change have been linked to increasing mental health vulnerability globally, with particular concern for heavily impacted regions such as the Caribbean and susceptible groups such as youth. Here we provide an exploratory empirical model of COVID-19 and climate change effects on anxiety levels in youth in three countries of the Caribbean Community. From September 2021 to April 2022, an anonymous cross-sectional survey was distributed online to youths (ages 18–24) in Barbados, Trinidad and Tobago, and Guyana via Facebook advertisements, social media influencers and youth ambassadors. Among a broader survey of health and well-being factors, we measured climate distress/COVID-19 distress, the extent to which thoughts of climate change or the pandemic interfered with their mental health, and generalized anxiety. Using robust bootstrapped mediation models, we investigated the relationship between mental health interference and anxiety, as mediated by distress levels regarding both crises. In a sample of N = 476 youth, we explored three models based on the survey data. First, we established a relationship between climate distress and anxiety levels. Second, COVID-19 mental health interference’s association with anxiety was mediated by COVID-19 distress (0.14 × 0.32 = 0.04, 95% CI: 0.03–0.06, P = 0.001), explaining 29% of the variance. Last, a cross-cutting relationship was observed between COVID-19 and climate change-related mental health, with climate distress mediating relationships between COVID-19 interference and anxiety (0.08 × 0.25 = 0.02, 95% CI: 0.01–0.03, P = 0.001) and the model explaining 28% of the variance. This study supports models that the perceived interference of the pandemic on well-being is associated with generalized anxiety levels and partially explained by specific pandemic-related distress levels. It also provides evidence that climate distress is associated with generalized anxiety. This work leads toward an understanding of pathways to decreased well-being among youth and areas for intervention (for example, coping with distress). This study is among the first to link the climate and COVID-19 crises with empirical data, looking at these as crises rather than specific events. We provide a clear construct of the pathway from crisis to decreased mental wellness that could inform future intervention studies. While our analyses were robust and findings add novelty to the literature, future work is needed to confirm and elucidate the temporality of the associations measured with longitudinal data.