Navigating Uncertainty: A Framework for Optimising Public Transport Networks' Performance

Public transport (PT) networks face significant challenges in achieving optimal outcomes due to the presence of risk and uncertainty. Despite the importance of optimising PT networks' performance, limited research has applied risk management tools to tackle this issue. In response, this study presents a three-stage framework to optimise PT networks' performance in uncertain conditions. First, we establish a PT criteria matrix using an analytic hierarchy process to develop a criteria model and calculate the criteria weightings. Second, we propose a multi-aspiration-level goal programming approach to optimise a PT network's performance based on the weighted results. To manage uncertainty, we use Monte Carlo simulation to analyse the probability of the optimal solution. Finally, to validate our approach, we apply the three-stage framework to three case study areas in Australia. The results of this research offer significant insights into identifying the likelihood of criteria optimisation scenarios, thereby assisting decision makers in allocating resources for optimising the delivery of PT network performance solutions in accordance with government requirements.