The accuracy limit of chemical shift predictions for species in aqueous solution

Interpreting NMR experiments benefits from first-principles predictions of chemical shifts. Reaching the accuracy limit of theory is relevant for unambiguous structural analysis and dissecting theoretical approximations. Since accurate chemical shift measurements are based on using internal reference compounds such as trimethylsilylpropanesulfonate (DSS), a detailed comparison of experimental with theoretical data requires simultaneous consideration of both target and reference species ensembles in the same solvent environment. Here we show that ab initio molecular dynamics simulations to generate liquid-state ensembles of target and reference compounds, including explicitly their short-range solvation environments and combined with quantum-mechanical solvation models, allows for predicting highly accurate 1H (similar to 0.1-0.5 ppm) and aliphatic 13C (similar to 1.5 ppm) chemical shifts for aqueous solutions of the model compounds trimethylamine N-oxide (TMAO) and N-methylacetamide (NMA), referenced to DSS without any system-specific adjustments. This encompasses the two peptide bond conformations of NMA identified by NMR. The results are used to derive a general-purpose guideline set for predictive NMR chemical shift calculations of NMA in the liquid state and to identify artifacts of force field models. Accurate predictions are only obtained if a sufficient number of explicit water molecules is included in the quantum-mechanical calculations, disproving a purely electrostatic model of the solvent effect on chemical shifts. Accurate predictions of chemical shifts of species in aqueous solution are possible by combining ab initio molecular dynamics simulations for ensembles of locally solvated target and reference compound (DSS) with quantum-mechanical solvation models.